Aristide Has No Future : Haiti Democracy Project Adviser Amb. Timothy Carney

MIAMI, Nov 27 (Reuters) - A wave of unrest in Haiti has exposed President Jean-Bertrand Aristide’s shaky rule and if the situation unravels further could pose an unwelcome problem for U.S. President George W. Bush. At a time when Washington’s focus abroad is on its continuing drive against terrorism and possible war in Iraq, the prospect of turmoil in the Caribbean and a flow of boat people would be awkward for the United States, analysts said . Over the past week, dissatisfaction with Aristide and with a worsening economy has flared, with thousands of people calling for the president’s ouster in rallies in several cities across the impoverished Caribbean nation. Counter-protesters have turned out, and violence has erupted sporadically. "The big question is whether Aristide is going to understand that he has no future," said Timothy Carney, a former U.S. ambassador to Haiti. "Without massive reform, Haiti is once again headed for kind of chaos that has intermittently dogged its history." Henry Carey, a political science professor at Georgia State University, said he did not think Aristide’s rule was threatened for the moment, but added the government had again shown it had to use force to quell unrest. Eight years after sending in troops to invade Haiti and restore Aristide to power, U.S. policy on Haiti revolved largely on avoiding avoid a mass influx of refugees, Carey said. Washington can ensure this as long as the Coast Guard continues to intercept and repatriate boat people trying to get to Florida, he said. "The Bush administration is not going to get involved (in an intervention) in Haiti," Carey added. However, some analysts say the United States would be rattled by a possible boat people exodus. The Coast Guard, which intercepted some 25,000 Haitians at sea during an exodus in 1994, has a new focus on security after the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States. The U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba — used in the past as a staging post for Haitian boat people — currently serves as a prison for Taliban and al Qaeda suspects from the Afghan war. After years of bloody dictatorships, Haiti’s fragile democracy was barely taking root when Aristide, a former Roman Catholic priest who had been elected on a wave of grass-roots support, was ousted in a military coup just seven months into his first term in 1991. President Bill Clinton sent in 20,000 U.S. troops in 1994 to reinstate Aristide. But Washington’s relations with Aristide have soured as critics contend he has used a heavy hand with political opponents and the country has failed to hold credible elections. Some argue the U.S. invasion should have been followed up with more "nation building" — both to work on reforming the economy and solidifying Haiti’s democracy. "We shouldn’t have just upped and left," said James Morrell, an advisor to Aristide while in exile and now head of a policy group called the Haiti Democracy Project. "We should have stayed to ensure good institutions were established." Morrell said the current situation in Haiti "has the look of the beginning of the unraveling, but that’s as far as you could go. I don’t see any evidence Aristide is going to leave or be pushed out." Aristide stepped aside as constitutionally mandated in 1996, his place taken by protege Rene Preval. He was re-elected in 2000 for a second term that has been marked by a bitter feud with the main political opposition over the results of parliamentary elections in 2000 and increasing disillusion among many of the country’s 8 million inhabitants as living conditions worsen in the poorest country in the Americas. Foreign donor countries have withheld aid worth hundreds of millions of dollars because of the stalemate over the elections. Aristide’s government has blamed this for many of the country’s current woes. Washington has been strongly critical of Aristide. "On virtually all fronts, from the timely accounting of its actions taken with respect to the political violence of last December, to ending impunity, to disarmament, to reparations, to counternarcotics, to election security, the government has simply not moved with enough purpose or effectiveness," said then-assistant secretary of state for the western hemisphere Otto Reich in October. For Lawrence Pezzullo, a retired ambassador who was special envoy to Haiti under Clinton and is a stern critic of Aristide, the 1994 invasion showed military action was not a ticket to democracy. He said the experience could be a lesson for Washington if it is to seek to replace Iraq’s President Saddam Hussein. "I don’t think using troops creates democracy," Pezzullo said. "Before you go talking about knocking over somebody, you had better think where you’re going to go with it."